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Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-13T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38366/-1
CME Note: Faint loop CME seen to the E in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. This CME overlaps heavily with the large filament eruption CME:2025-04-13T08:00Z. Source is a bit uncertain, but a candidate source is dimming seen near AR 4060 (N09E30) spanning from N00 to N15 and E20 to E30, starting around 2025-04-13T07:00Z in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T22:16Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/38372/1
Model Inputs:
2025-04-13T08:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-37.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=619.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2025-04-13T13:35Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-04-15T22:16Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =12.4 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-17T16:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-04-17T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250413_133500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 38.25 hour(s)
Difference: -5.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M SWAO) on 2025-04-14T02:21Z

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